Houthis
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The Houthis are the Iran-aligned movement that emerged from the Shia Muslim north-west of Yemen during the country's multi-part civil war and eventually overthrew the Yemeni government. In John Kiriakou's assessment they do not control all of Yemen, but they control the most important parts of it.

The 2026 blockade

On a Monday in July 2026 the Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, threatening to blow up ships moving in and out of Jeddah, mostly oil tankers, plus cargo ships transiting the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandab. Kiriakou played the warning they were broadcasting to Saudi vessels in the open on channel 16: ships belonging to the "Saudi enemy" were to proceed via the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and in case of non-compliance "all ships will be in our target."

He notes that he had predicted the move a week earlier, and describes himself as one of the few people inside or outside government who follows Yemen closely.

Fighting reputation

Saudi Arabia, Kiriakou says, essentially cannot respond: there is a Saudi navy "for what that's worth," but the Saudi military fought the Houthis for more than a decade and lost. From living in Saudi Arabia he draws a further observation, that although the Saudis dominate the Yemenis economically, geographically and physically, the Houthis are fierce fighters afraid of nobody, and it is the Saudis who are afraid of them.

He has made the same argument for years. In a 2010 Capitol Hill debate he told an audience that Yemenis are consistently underestimated, that they are scrappy and tough and mean, and that they would beat Saudi Arabia despite being smaller and poorer.

The Israeli factor

If Israeli shipping is threatened in the Bab al-Mandab, Kiriakou expects Israel to strike from the airbase it obtained in Somaliland, about a hundred miles from the Houthis, and predicts crimes against humanity, the port of Hodeidah bombed repeatedly, along with schools, hospitals, children and private homes, as he says has happened before. "That's been tried in the past. It doesn't work."

Entry into the 2026 regional war

In late July 2026 Kiriakou listed the Houthis among the parties whose involvement had turned the Iran conflict into a regional war: "remember a few days ago Yemen's Houthis got involved and said that they would begin attacking Saudi ships. They've done that. Not just Saudi ships, but Saudi oil And now the Saudis are striking back, not just against the Houthis, but against pro-Iranian militias in Iraq."

Joining the 2026 war

When Ansar Allah announced during the 2026 Iran war that it would begin joint operations with Iran, John Kiriakou was sceptical of the wording rather than the intent: "joint operations are going to be hard, since Ansar Allah is in northern Yemen and Iran is in Iran, and never the two shall meet."

Coordination he thought plausible, he put the chance at about ninety per cent that it meant attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and the consequence equally predictable: "we've been down that road before, and they're going to get the daylights bombed out of them."

After the Mecca Agreement

The Mecca Agreement put Turkey and Pakistan behind Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Houthis, and Kiriakou notes that Pakistan and Turkey "now probably have to join the Saudis" in it. The Houthi response was immediate: surface-to-surface missiles fired at Saudi Arabia after the agreement was signed.

Kiriakou reads the gesture as provisional rather than decisive, "They're not afraid, but they may become afraid when the Turks send troops and the Pakistanis send troops," alongside whatever the internationally recognised but "extraordinarily weak" Yemeni government can muster. His forecast is short: "It's only going to get worse."

See also

- Yemen
- Bab al-Mandab
- Ali Abdullah Saleh
