Title: John Kiriakou & Ted Rall's Live IRAN WAR Q&A / DeProgram Show
Show: DeProgram Show with Ted Rall and Jamarl Thomas
Date: 2026-03-01
URL: https://youtu.be/swDJSeo-Et0
Duration: 22:00

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[00:00] All right, so so we do are ready for some questions? Yes, sir. All right, hello heroes. Yeah, thank you. Do you think any of the Arab countries that were struck will actually strike back or will they count on the US and Israel to do this for them? I'm wondering the cultural dynamics playing into this decision like losing face appearing weak or being peaceful during Ramadan. The Ramadan thing it's interesting to me, too. Yeah, this is a big sin for this to be launched during Ramadan. Mhm. Um my UAE contacts told me yesterday that

[00:30] um they sent their ships out of port not to fight but just to protect them. Uh we have not seen retaliation uh from the Arab states yet and my guess is we probably won't that they're going to let the US and Israel do their thing with some British air cover and that's going to be it. I agree with that completely. Uh Donkey Man, do we think the war will last more than a month? I think it will. Yeah, you know, that's a great question.

[01:01] Donald Trump said yesterday it's only going to last a couple of days. He lives in a fantasy world if he thinks this is going to last a couple of days. Um I wouldn't be surprised if there are active US and Israeli hostilities for weeks, but yeah, I could see this lasting for a month, sure. I mean, especially if um the Iranians bloody the Israelis or our noses in some way that we can't fathom, right? They They get a missile gets through and I don't know, blows up something that Israel or we care about a lot and it and then there's

[01:33] a domestic there's, you know, a domestic concern that we can't just let it go. That's right. Okay, um let's uh is Iran actually causing damage anywhere even with the numerous missiles fired? Doesn't seem to do much. Is Iran hoping for an off-ramp home still? Oh, I'm sure they're hoping for an off-ramp. The Israelis killed practically everybody. It's not just the Ayatollah, his daughter, son-in-law, and grandson. It's It's the entire Iranian military

[02:03] leadership was wiped out yesterday. So [snorts] the the the second and third string guys are in. Mhm. Yeah. Um yeah. I mean so but is Iran actually causing any damage anywhere is the question. Oh. Not that I've seen. I mean sure. Yeah. I mean they they fired rockets at the Jebel Ali the the the free port in Dubai. They they have They've damaged Manama and Kuwait airports. Uh they fired a rocket at the

[02:34] Saudi oil fields that was intercepted. A couple of hotels were were damaged in Dubai. There was Yeah, one rocket landed in Abu Dhabi. There's some damage but absolutely nothing like what's being inflicted on Iran. No no no question. It's definitely a one-way street there when it comes to that. Um but all they have to do is survive. Um Diva Divya, do we think hitting Dubai hard would be beneficial for Iran right right now because of all the American interests it's right now? I think no and I'll tell you why because

[03:06] that's where Iran does its business. Iran I mean Dubai is chock-full of Iranian businessmen and that's Iran's outlet to the western world. That's how Iran evades sanctions by having businesses in Dubai. So I think no. Hitting Dubai is not going to help Iran at all. John during during the Iraq war, Bush and Cheney especially the latter kept saying, "Oh, we're going to have a cheap oil because of this." Turned out it went exactly the opposite way. I I think I see a replay here. I think

[03:39] the real damage is going to be economic. I mean high oil prices means high everything prices. This is a president who's trying to fight inflation more than anything else, right? I mean that's the real risk to him. That's right. That's exactly right. And it's not like Venezuelan oil is a panacea. It's not. It's filthy. It's heavy. You have to inject it with massive amounts of chemicals to clean it up just to make it into home heating oil. So, Venezuela is not going to be the answer to our prayers. Oil prices are going to go up. Uh Sasan, we get

[04:11] such great questions. Um thank you. You guys are great. Um what do you think is the impact of the death of Khamenei on the uh future of the regime in Iran? As an Iranian, I'm worried yet another extremist is chosen and the cycle continues on and on. Love the show. That, I think, is exactly what's going to happen. Absolutely 100% agree. That is exactly what's going to happen. You know, and the thing, too, is that I think that in the West, we seriously overestimated Ayatollah Khamenei's authority. Mhm. Certainly, he was the

[04:42] final word on on religious issues. Certainly. But, you can take him out and have literally nothing change. It's like if you killed the Pope. Yes, exactly. Exactly. No. No, that's wonderful. I'm going to I'm going to repeat that. Uh Mason uh oh uh let's see. Reload. Um Please reload. What are you doing? Okay, good morning, gentlemen. The sneaky part of my brain wondered how much of a beating Iran will suffer before before finally unleashing their hypersonic

[05:13] missiles. I think they proved during their probing strike on Iron Dome that letting Israel and the US burn through their limited arms supply that patience is the best practice. Yeah, I mean, you learn that when you have 7,000 years of continuous culture, right? Also, why does the American government always imagine that killing a leader will end a war? >> I know, right? >> Glad you mentioned the timeframe. Germany fought beyond Hitler. If Trump was killed today, nothing about our country's day-to-day would change. And somehow And somehow we expect other countries to be different.

[05:43] It's It's a childish mentality. The New York Times just issued a push notification saying that the Iranian foreign minister says that a new supreme leader will be chosen in the next day or two. So, there it is right there. Nothing changes. It You can take out the Pope and there's just going to be another Pope. Yeah, if you and I were in the Iranian leadership or any leadership that was besieged like this, we would say, "Oh, we have to project continuity in order to maintain domestic control." I mean, they don't like the fact that there have been protests and even if it

[06:13] is just 300 people, you know, going >> [laughter] >> They don't like that. That's 300 too many. Um you know, regimes radicalize under in times of war. That's >> do. you know, that's just sort of history. Um you know, hypersonic missiles. We got, you know, Do they exist? Are they real? Oh, yeah. They're real. The Russians have them. The Chinese have them. The Iranians have them. >> The Iranians have them. That's what I mean. Iranians have them. They exist. So, so they're so they're they're So, they Iranians keep are, you know, using

[06:45] their usual florid language um as as they do to say like, "Today is going to be we're going to unleash our doomsday scenario." Okay, maybe. But Yeah. No, but the the danger of hypersonic missiles is they'll go three or four times the speed of sound. So, you're you're dealing with a missile going 2,500 mi an hour. You can't defend against a missile going 2,500 mi an hour. And so, maybe you can get it into, you know, the Knesset building or you can get it into the side of the USS Abraham Lincoln or something like that.

[07:18] And then, you know, the West is going to have to deal with it. They don't have a lot of them. They only have a couple of them. But, you know, we'll see if they use them. >> them. It's like the Afghan Mujahideen in the '80s, right? They didn't have that many Stingers, but they had to make them count. That's right, and they did. Um Hello, gentlemen. Big fan. Wondering if he thinks Iran's sleeper cells, if they have, will be activated and if they will be activated in the UK. In addition, what will China's likely response be? John, where do you get those lovely sweaters like you wore on Diary of a CEO from? >> [laughter]

[07:48] >> Let's dispose of the sleeper cells. Um, they're they're probably they don't exist, right? Um, I don't think they exist in the US, Canada. >> Maybe. Maybe. Probably the UK, probably. But they certainly exist in places like Pakistan, India, Indonesia. Yeah, they're out there. They're out there. Um, and thank you for that. I I get these sweaters at at Macy's. [laughter] Oh, really? I thought you brought them back from Greece or something. No. Uh, okay, China's response. Well, we already China is doing what they always do. Um,

[08:21] they're trying to be the adults in the room. They keep saying, like, you guys stop, respect Iran's sovereignty, just stop. But that I think it's going to be that's going to be about it. Ted, there was a headline on The Onion a couple of weeks ago that was funny because it was so true. And the headline was, China content to sit back and watch US destroy itself. And that's what we're going to see here. No doubt. Um, how much leverage Jasper wants to know does this give countries like Russia and China to pursue their military goals such as in Taiwan? I I'm

[08:53] not convinced that that that China wants to invade Taiwan. Uh, no. No, I don't think so. If China wanted to invade Taiwan, they would have done it two days ago. Yeah, that would have been the time. I I am I'm I'm you and I, Ted, we're in the minority of people who who believe that China is not interested in invading Taiwan. Yeah, we have. Um, and and the Russians are very happy to see us distracted and fighting the Iranians so they can focus on the Ukrainians and not have the American monkey on their backs. Yeah. Now, I mean, I this it's definitely look, uh, you know, when the cat's away, it's always a good time. And

[09:25] we're the cat. Um, uh, Matt, I can remember Bob Baer writing extensively about the Iranian threat, specifically the ability to covertly retaliate against the West and shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Any thoughts? It's been years since I read his book. Memory is hazy, but I have a feeling No, that that that memory is correct. That's exactly what Bob Baer wrote about. And uh and he was correct then when he wrote that book 25 years ago. He's correct today. Um the Iranians can shut the Strait of Hormuz. If I were

[09:56] the Iranian leader, I would shut the Strait of Hormuz. Oh, I see. They're not going to They're not going to win a sustained bombing campaign, but over the long term, you know, they live there. It's their neighborhood, and they can inflict real economic harm on the West. Um Ted and John thank Declan Brady. Love the show. Welcome your unbiased opinions and analysis. Why do you think Iran is attacking its neighbors? Surely it's the aggrieved party. Iran needs all the support it can get. And how does hitting Dubai and Kuwaiti airports help their

[10:28] cause? Hope your comes through, John. It's because there are There are two US military bases in Kuwait. The headquarters of the American Fifth Fleet is in Bahrain. The world's largest US Air Force base is in Qatar. Two US Army bases are in um the Emirates. Uh there are multiple US military, both Army and Air Force bases in Saudi Arabia. So, there's no love of Iran in these countries.

[10:58] Well, exactly. I'm glad you you said that there. I mean, I think I think that's the final calculus, John. These aren't their friends. They're not going to get They're not going to become friends. These are not any None of these targeted countries are going to help the Iranians in any way, shape, or form. They're not even going to tweet on their behalf. Absolutely not. Uh as someone who served in the Navy, Amy Andy wants to know, "This is very concerning for me. Do you think we'll need to put boots on the ground for this? Love you guys." That right there is the $64,000 question. So, everybody at the White House, the

[11:30] Pentagon, and the State Department. And all the talking heads from Capitol Hill say that there will be no boots on the ground. That would be the death knell for the United States. If we were If we had to put boots on the ground and fight a country of 92 million people, you know, I'm going to reiterate what you said yesterday, Ted. And that is that the US and Israel have to win. The Iranians just have to survive. And that is much, much easier than winning. Yeah. Yeah. And they have the home field

[12:01] advantage. Like Like let's not forget that. Gonk, thank you for the Thanks for the fiver. I'm intimidated. John looks pissed. Rightfully so. World >> I am, actually. I'm pissed about this. World War >> unnecessary war of war of choice. Oh, I mean, it's one of the most boneheaded and we've had a lot of boneheaded wars. All of our wars are boneheaded for the most part. World War III not off the table? I'd say never. Things can always spin out of control. Yeah. Um

[12:32] Accident member for a month, thank you so much. Is the only probable reason Turkey hasn't been hit because of NATO? If they're hit, it will trigger Article 5? That's a good question, too. Um That is That it could be. It could be that the Iranians, you know, have more important things to worry about right now than Turkey. But sure, that could be it. And And

[13:02] don't Don't forget Azerbaijan. Right? There are Israeli There is an Israeli base in Azerbaijan. The Israelis have drones pre-positioned there. The Azerbaijanis are or the Azeris are very close to Turkey. So, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see this expand to Azerbaijan. Not at all. Who's actually driving a 10 Australian dollars from Luminous? Thank you very much. >> Thank you. Who is actually driving Iran policy in this administration? Is there a coherent interagency process?

[13:35] Or are with constant I I can answer that. significant autonomy outside of normal National Security Council channels? That's a great question. It's a It's quite an important question. In a normal situation, there are two bodies called the Principals Committee and the Deputies Committee. The Principals Committee is chaired by the President, and it includes the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Advisor, the um Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Director of the CIA.

[14:06] The Deputies Committee is the number twos for all those people. It's chaired by the Vice President. Um normally, this policy would be coming out of the the National Security Council. In this odd scenario that we're in right now, Marco Rubio is both Secretary of State and National Security Advisor. And so, this is Marco Rubio's policy. We We learned from the the this leak from the White House last week that J.D. Vance was opposed to an attack on Iran.

[14:38] Tulsi Gabbard was opposed to an attack on Iran, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs came out and said that he was opposed to an attack on Iran. Who does that leave? Marco Rubio. That's it. Marco Rubio is running this policy. Yeah, and Bibi Netanyahu. Um Bibi Netanyahu. Want to support the show with style? Go to deprogram.live and check out our merch. That's deprogram.live, or check out the description below. Thanks for watching. Um What Big Question, why is the US

[15:10] Israel's If you can summarize, I would be grateful. That's a It's a big good question. I mean, we know it is. Yeah. Cuz the the United States does anything and everything the Israelis tell it to do even when it's not in US interests to do so. Yeah. Um yeah, so I mean, why though is the question? >> And the the why is because of money and politics. That's really what this comes down to. You know, Citizens United made it even worse so Miriam Adelson could

[15:41] donate a hundred and fifty million dollars to the RNC super PAC and AIPAC can just spend people out of office by challenging them in primaries when they do the slightest thing that the Israelis don't like. Israel is there's also other things, right? Israel is a is a tech hub and the United States feels like you know, that that alliance with the intel that we get from you know, from Israel is considered valuable. But also we're the the Israel the Israelis lobby.

[16:13] They're spectacularly effective bullies. They smear everybody. Like you criticize Israel, you you know, you're slimed as an anti-semite. That's been their stick forever and up until very recently it still worked. It's finally you know, the spell is broken but I mean, there's more to it than that but what do you think, John? Yeah, I think that's it. And and I think I think this may be what breaks the spell. If the Israelis suck us into

[16:44] a war, a longer-term war rather than just a few days of bombing, we're in trouble and we're going to have to seriously as a country reassess this relationship. What do we get out of this relationship? I understand exactly what the Israelis get but what do we get out of this relationship? By the way, producer Trent is reminding me to mention to everybody who's on YouTube that if you go to membership and you become a tier two member, you will be thanked by us in the closing credits

[17:14] of each and every show. So please go ahead and do that. He's in the middle of updating that list. I just wanted to remind you of that. Um will the uh Bucktown crazy wants to know will the US need to escort commerce ships through the Strait of Hormuz? Well, that's what Ronald Reagan did in the 1980s when the Iranians threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. He sent the US Navy there to escort each and every oil tanker through the Strait. I remember I remember being on a on a boat

[17:47] in the Persian Gulf and seeing the the SS Bridgeton. The Bridgeton was famous in the '80s because the Iranians attacked it and set it ablaze. It It was the biggest oil tanker in the world at the time. It ended up being towed into port and repaired. It took a couple of years to repair it. But, um we may be headed into the same scenario where there's going to have to be a long-term heavy US naval presence in the Gulf just to escort uh ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Um which of course could set us up for

[18:18] being targeted. So, then, you know, it it sets up it's a trigger for escalation. Jacob, thanks for the 999. Is it likely, John, that the CIA's paramilitary is on the ground in Iran already? That's a great >> That's a great question. I would say probably not. Now, granted, my my information is dated, but to have the CIA paramilitary on the ground to carry out targeted killings, the president would have to

[18:49] um assert that a person is uh what's called a clear and present danger to the United States, to an American installation, um and to or to an American person. And I I don't think we're there. Can you Oh, this is good. Trevor House, can you guys simply explain why you are so against the attack. Do you agree that Iran is extremely dangerous when left alone? In a perfect world, what do you think America's stance should be on

[19:19] Iran? I'm really glad for this question. John, why don't why don't you take it? >> [snorts] >> Uh Iran posed no threat to the United States. None. None. It had no nuclear weapon. It had no nuclear weapons program. That was confirmed twice by the CIA and by the International Atomic Energy Agency. >> And don't And didn't want one. And didn't want one. And there was a fatwa against developing one. And even if they had one, they didn't have a delivery system to to deliver it.

[19:51] So, um you know, why are we doing Israel's dirty work for it? If the Israelis want to attack Iran, then go ahead and attack Iran. But why did we have to do it? Why are Americans dying in the name of Israeli foreign policy? More uh $4.99 from Perez. Thank you so much. And how about ironic to wage a war based on nukes and take out the leader who withheld a religious ruling against nukes? Exactly right. You know, a a dear friend of mine said yesterday that the

[20:22] next Iranian grand ayatollah or or supreme leader is just going to issue a new fatwa revoking the old fatwa and calling for a nuclear uh uh weapons program. Yeah, it's Of course they will. I mean, you know, you and I have been talking about this for a long time. Um okay, uh thanks for the 10 Australian dollars. What's the current Israeli assessment? Does Netanyahu's government actually want a US invasion or do they prefer Iran weakened with the regime

[20:52] intact as a perpetual justification for their own military posture? John, you know You know my answer to that. >> Oh, yeah, yeah. No, I think that what the Israelis want in Iran is what the Israelis got in Libya. Chaos. They want chaos. They want a civil war and they want as many dead Iranians as they possibly can get. Um Isaac, thanks for the $5. The US consulate was attacked in Pakistan yesterday. I'm glad that came up in response to the attacks on Iran.

[21:23] Have we started a war with the Muslim world? Well, that's what we did last time. Yeah. The answer's probably yes. Yeah. We That is That's exactly what we did last time. We killed 2 million Muslims from, you know, 2001 to 2020. John, let me ask you Is this going to ex- I mean, many Arab countries have a huge division between the politics of their street, as they say it, and the In other words, their citizens and the policies of their governments. Um how much will this could could a schism

[21:54] like blow up someone's government? Um and it Where Where would you think they would be most likely If I were, you know, the leader of Bahrain, I would be genuinely worried today. If I were the Pakistani government, I would be genuinely worried today. If I were You're always He's always be worried. Yeah. But even an Indian leader, I would be worried about what my population in Kashmir would be doing right now. >> Yeah, they're They're already There's massive protests in Kashmir cuz it's a

[22:26] >> Massive. And the Saudis The Saudi royal family, they've got to be on the verge [music] of cracking down in the Eastern province, which is almost entirely Shia Muslim.
