2028 presidential field
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The 2028 presidential field is, by John Kiriakou's account, the most unreadable of his lifetime, a judgement he offers with an explicit claim to standing.

The claim to standing

Kiriakou prefaces the assessment by establishing how closely he has followed these races: "I have been a political animal since I was 16 years old. Obsessed with politics, volunteering on campaigns."

He notes one interruption to that record, and its cause: "I've never missed an election until my right to vote was taken away from me, and then I missed one before I had it reinstated."

No idea at all

Against that background, his verdict on 2028: "I think this is the very first time in my life when I genuinely don't have the foggiest idea, not only who the next president's going to be, but who the nominees of the two main political parties might be."

The measure he cites is the breadth of the field on predictive markets, which he had checked the previous day: "there are 44 Democrats and 26 Republicans being talked about as presidential candidates." His question about it is diagnostic rather than rhetorical, "What's going on with that? What kind of conclusions should we draw from that?"

Who would want it

The explanation he entertains is that the job has become unattractive to anyone sane. Asked who wants it, his own answer is that the prospect now includes prosecution: "you're probably going to be prosecuted and indicted once you leave office anyway."

That narrows the applicant pool to a particular disposition. Asked what sort of person still wants the job, Kiriakou's answer is flat: "You have to be a narcissist, and probably a sociopath on top of it."

The candidate he wants

Kiriakou's own preference is Tucker Carlson, and he is unusually direct about having lobbied for it: "I've begged him. I've begged him to run for president." Carlson has declined consistently, "I'm not interested at all", and as recently as a week earlier, "I'm not going to run. It's not going to happen."

His standing offer, should that change: "I'm all in and I will do whatever you want me to do to help get the word out." And his assessment: "I think that he would be an absolutely brilliant presidential candidate and president."

Separately, on the Republican side, Kiriakou has said he expects JD Vance, the current front-runner, not to be the nominee, and predicts Marco Rubio instead.

Kiriakou's 2026 read

Asked who would run in 2028 and which candidates represent private agendas rather than genuine transparency, Kiriakou answered the second half first and very narrowly: "There are only two who prioritize genuine honest-to-god transparency. For the Republicans, it is Thomas Massie. For the Democrats, it is Ro Khanna."

On the size of the field he cites the prediction market Kalshi, which he says listed 66 people at the time, 44 Democrats and 22 Republicans, "Too many to name here." Among Democrats he puts Gavin Newsom as the front runner, followed by J.B. Pritzker, probably Rahm Emanuel, and Pete Buttigieg.

The Republican side he treats as a two-man race between Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and he dissents from the consensus: "Everybody seems to think that J.D. Vance is going to be the nominee. I don't think that's the case. I think it's going to be Rubio." His reasoning is experience against runway, Rubio "is already tested. He's run for president. He's been a senator. Now he's been a cabinet member," while Vance "is is practically a kid. The guy, what, just turned 40. And so, he could run for president for the next 30 to 35 years. I think that he's got a good shot of being president someday. I don't think he's got a shot of being president in 2028."

See also

- John Kiriakou
- Tucker Carlson
- JD Vance
