"Stefanik will not be governor"
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John Kiriakou described a long conversation with a friend he characterises as "not just a Republican and a conservative, but irrationally Republican and conservative", someone who, when challenged, "doesn't have any idea why he believes these things" and simply repeats what the right says he is supposed to believe.

The theory

The friend's confident claim was that Elise Stefanik would win the governorship. Kiriakou's answer was immediate: "Absolutely not. This year or any other year, she's not going to win."

The friend then produced what Kiriakou calls a very complicated reason, resting on one issue: that New Yorkers are not allowed to carry guns, that everywhere you go there are signs saying no guns, "especially around New York City", and that he cannot even carry his gun to the police station.

The rebuttal

Kiriakou rejected the factual premise outright, with a comparison drawn from his own travels: "there are more signs in Kabul that say you can't carry a gun into an establishment than there are in New York."

His explanation is that the issue is invisible rather than settled: guns are "so off the radar in New York City that nobody bothers to ban them from their businesses." Ted Rall agreed, adding that the legal position had changed in any case after the Supreme Court decision.

Kiriakou then put the friend's theory in the mouth of an imagined voter to show what it required: "People are going to say, oh, I'm pro-choice and I support the social safety net, but I'm going to vote for Stefanik because she wants me to be able to carry a gun to a gas station. I said, that's seriously what you're telling me."

His verdict on the argument was direct: "That is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard you say, and I've heard you say some really stupid things."

The prediction on the record

Kiriakou then made the forecast deliberately and dated it: "I'm going to say it right now, where there's plenty of time. Elise Stefanik will not be governor of New York. Period."

Rall concurred and noted the general point does not extend to all Republicans, George Pataki won, and Kiriakou called him a good one, but held that the demographics no longer permit it.

The career

Kiriakou's wider assessment is that she was mishandled and is now finished. He said she "got screwed politically": she was to be ambassador to the United Nations, and the nomination was withdrawn because the president thought it better for her to keep her congressional seat. Needing something to do, "she ended up just saying, well, I'll run for governor."

"She's very talented. She was going places in the Republican Party," Kiriakou said, "and I think her political career is done. She can't get elected to the Senate. She won't get elected governor. Another Republican's going to take her House seat. I think she's done." Asked why she was running a race he put at five-to-one against, he cited a rule of his own: "you should never ever pick a fight that you cannot win."

See also

- The multi-state permit
- Ted Rall
- John Kiriakou
