The referee in a Greek-Turkish war
==================================

Interviewed at the Intelligence and Security Forum in Athens in May 2025, John Kiriakou was asked what stance the United States would take if a shooting incident developed between Greece and Turkey.

The American position

His answer was that Greece should not count on it. Kiriakou said the United States could not be trusted to come in on Greece's side, and would instead position itself as an honest broker between the two, a posture that, from Athens, amounts to being denied the ally it assumes it has.

The reasoning is not affection for Turkey but its weight. Turkey is the larger military power and a NATO member whose cooperation Washington needs, which makes even-handedness the cheaper policy.

What Greece would have instead

Asked whether that left Greece alone, Kiriakou said it did not.

"I think Greece has the strong support of NATO, but especially the Italians, the French, the German, British, countries that have relations in the first place with Turkey. And the borders are there. No changing. The Turks can't just take islands or take territory. Not acceptable. So I think that even without American leadership, Greece would be okay."

Pressed on whether Greece could therefore stand up to Turkey, he answered that it could: "they are doing well militarily at the moment."

The shape of the argument

The two halves are not in tension. Kiriakou's claim is that Greek security in a crisis would rest on the inadmissibility of border change and on European partners with their own stake in it, rather than on the United States choosing a side.

He treats the guarantee as legal and territorial rather than political: the borders exist, and seizing islands is not something that would be permitted, regardless of who is in the White House.

The caveat about the source

The interview was conducted in Greek and answered in English, and the automatic captions of Kiriakou's replies are in places heavily corrupted. His answer on the American position survives only in fragments, the phrases about not being able to trust the United States to come in on Greece's side, and about Washington acting as an honest broker, are legible; the sentences around them are not. The NATO passage is intact.

Kiriakou's closing message to the same audience was about the diaspora rather than security: that Greeks should understand how many Greek Americans, Greek Canadians, Greek British and Greek Australians are proud of Greece and want it to succeed and grow.

See also

- John Kiriakou
- Greek Intelligence Service
- Israel, Turkey, and NATO Article 5
- The Foreign Relations volume and the sources still alive
- Six different passports
