Cancelling the 2026 midterms
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Asked whether the war could help the Republicans hold Congress, Kiriakou rejected the premise on a general rule rather than the particular numbers. The war is "at most approved of or tolerated by 27% of the public, 40% by some accounts", and support of that kind does not recover: "wars never gain in popularity, ever. World War II didn't gain in popularity, and it was the most popular American war ever. Wars are hard, wars kill people, wars cost money. The public turns against them." His conclusion is categorical: "There's no world in which we look back in December and say, 'Wow, the Republicans picked up seats in the house, and it turned out it's because of the war.' That's not possible."

The other use for a war

Having ruled out the electoral benefit, he offers the alternative and labels it before making it: "I think it could be part of an excuse to declare a national emergency and cancel an election, or to try to do that... I know it sounds paranoid."

The reasoning runs from a personal incentive to a sequencing argument. "If I'm Donald Trump, I don't want to go to jail in 2029. That means I got to cancel 2028. And it's easier to cancel 2026 than it is to cancel 2028." The precedent he reaches for is Ukrainian: having cancelled the first, a government can "like Zelenskyy, go back later and say, 'Oh, we canceled the parliamentary elections. Now we'll cancel...'"

He stops short of predicting it, and explains the reticence by reference to his own record: "We have consistently been taken by surprise with some of these issues. So, I'm not making any predictions."

See also

- Donald Trump
- 2026 Iran war
- The Filibuster And Harry Reids Lesson
