Title: 'Always Watch The Naval Movements' - Ex-CIA Officer John Kyr
Show: Mario Nawfal
Date: 2025-12-10
URL: https://youtu.be/aYzvjRksz9Q
Duration: 27:00

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[00:00] If they do go ahead with a coup, the first step will be to take out Maduro. There's been reports that Maduro was seeking amnesty for the US for him to step down. And Trump refused to give him amnesty. If the US government is serious about attacking a country, always watch for naval movements. This was something I learned early on at the CIA. And sure enough, we sent the USS Gerald R. Ford and its associated 11 battleships and supply ships. And I said, "Oh, dang it. The CIA used drugs as a way to weaken

[00:30] other countries. The the drugs that are in Venezuela are not Venezuelan. They come from Colombia and they come from Ecuador and they're transiting Venezuela on their way to West Africa. Nothing good comes from this kind of US foreign policy. What do you expect to happen in Venezuela if Maduro does step down? >> Chaos. >> Well, who thought who thought we'd be talking about Venezuela today? We've talked about Iran, we've talked about Russia, Ukraine, we've talked about China, and now Venezuela is in the mix.

[01:03] >> What do you What's your initial reaction? I was listening to you earlier talk give a ask audience questions about it. What's your initial reaction when you started seeing that narrative shift? Because you've seen that playbook before. So, what was your first thought? Well, you know, I've said many times over the years that if you want to know if the US government is serious about attacking a country, always watch for naval movements. This was something I learned early on at the CIA that if if we're really going to attack a country, we need aircraft carrier battle groups

[01:34] in place. So, I said a month ago or so, I said, "We're not going to attack Venezuela because we haven't sent an aircraft carrier battle group." And sure enough, we sent the USS Gerald R. Ford and its associated 11 battleships and supply ships. And I said, "Oh, dang it. Now we're serious." At the same time though, Mario, you know, you have to look at what the upside is for the United States. And I'm not seeing an

[02:05] upside. >> We're We're not at war with Venezuela. we have made a policy decision to not buy Venezuelan oil and to not refine Venezuelan oil anymore. Um, so I don't see what the upside to this is. You would think that if if the administration uh wants to get rid of Venezuelan refugees or Venezuelan immigrants, it would want to actually strengthen the economy of Venezuela and encourage them to go back. But that's

[02:36] really not what we're seeing. So this from a policy perspective, this doesn't make much sense to me. And and you know what, let me add two other things. One is drugs. We're we're hearing a lot a lot in the United States about Venezuelan drugs. The the drugs that are in Venezuela are not Venezuelan. They come from Colombia and they come from Ecuador and they're transiting Venezuela on their way to West Africa where they're then put on camels and taken up this ancient Tuar uh dirt path to

[03:07] Morocco where they're put on boats and sent to Spain that these drugs are meant for for Western Europe, not for the United States. And finally, I think that I think really what we're seeing here is a slow motion response or a delayed response to China's decision five years ago to build uh an oil refinery in the Caribbean. And the reason I say that is Venezuela has very very dirty oil. They have an ocean of it, but it's very high

[03:38] in sulfur content and it needs it needs significant um uh chemical um distillation >> refining >> refining to not Yeah. And you can't even use it to turn into gasoline for your cars. It's mostly made into home heating oil because it's so dirty and high in sulfur. Well, until just five or six years ago, the only place that you could refine that oil was in Houston, Texas. We built refineries that were specialized just to handle Venezuelan oil. But then of course we sanctioned

[04:10] the Venezuelan oil industry. Well, the Venezuelans didn't then just shut down their oil industry. The Indians and the Chinese built new refineries to handle Venezuelan oil and they shipped the oil there. The Chinese are swimming in money. And so they decided instead of shipping the Venezuelan oil all the way to China, they'll just build the refinery in the Caribbean, refine it right there, and ship it out from the Caribbean. And the United States doesn't like that. So the bottom line here, I think, is China, but Maduro's already

[04:42] offered Trump a while ago, well before the buildup, um, full access for the US for Venezuelan oil. Because for Maduro, it doesn't really care. He doesn't really care where the money's coming from. At the end of the day, his main concern is regime survival. So, I just don't see like if this that would be a valid concern. We're seeing China expand becoming the biggest trading partner for many Latin American countries. >> But I just don't see that to be a solution for that. Like you don't you don't go and and and and conduct a regime change operation because a country is doing more business with another country. So that's that's why I like your point because you started off

[05:13] saying that you look at naval movements to see if that if the US is serious about a certain country and taking military action in a country including regime change and we saw that recently in the Middle East. Um but you also said that it just does not make strategic sense for a regime change in Venezuela for such a a large large country even though Maduro is not that popular in the country and you've said that previously you know like me you don't like Maduro. I don't like Maduro. Um your your first point though, how likely is it for naval movements like this to

[05:43] happen as a bluff by the US as a negotiating tactic by Trump to try to force >> Oh, sure. Sure. We we do this all the time in the South China Sea. Uh so yeah, it very well could be a bluff just to make him jump on a plane and run away. That would be as far as US policy, that would probably be the the preferred end to this thing. just had to have him get on a plane and fly to Havana or Moscow or somewhere else where he can live happily ever after. Uh but then again,

[06:13] it leaves a power vacuum. There are multiple right-wing factions. There's the there's the military which is pro Maduro. So, we don't have any idea what the military would intend to do. I I just again I just don't see an upside to this. And then on top of all that, when you have all of the region's powers, the Colombians, the Brazilians, the Mexicans saying that they are 100% opposed to American intervention.

[06:45] What does that mean for American policy? You know, we're not going to get any help from any of the regional powers. I just don't see what what how this benefits the United States. >> Yeah. I think there's a lot of talk about how the US is starting to to harm the relationship it has with Europe. Now, I think there's a lot of um a lot of substance in the criticism that the US has been um sending Europe's way, especially when it comes to free speech. But now we're seeing the same thing Latin America. If the US does conduct a regime change operation, even enemies of

[07:17] of Maduro won't be too happy to see that happening to one of their neighbors, and it could lead to a lot of immigration to their country, a lot of instability in their country. Um, so from a foreign policy perspective, a regime change long-term is in my opinion could erode trust in the US as as an ally for all these different countries. That's why I'm hoping it is it is a bluff. But then and there's also on a poly there's a a platform called polyark where people make a bet on certain outcomes and people are betting two days ago they were betting I think 50/50 that Maduro

[07:48] is going to be leaving to Qatar. There's been rumors about him planning to leave to Qatar, but late recently he's been upping the ante, immobilizing the military. We saw that in the last two days. Um, but there's one development that surprised me is uh there's been reports that Maduro was seeking amnesty for the US for him to step down and Trump refused to give him amnesty. Um, if that is true, what's the strategic reason not to provide Maduro with amnesty? The only thing that I could think of was

[08:18] that Donald Trump wants a scalp. You remember um there, you remember that uh Manuel Morie, who was the the president and and military leader of Panama back during the George HW Bush uh years. uh he was a long-term paid asset [snorts] of the CIA until the CIA just didn't need him anymore and they turned on him and all of a sudden he became an internationally wanted narcotics trafficker which may or may

[08:50] not have been true and even if it was true the CIA knew he was doing it from the beginning anyway. So, um, we sent in a small strike force and and kidnapped him and brought him back to Miami and, uh, put him on trial for international drug trafficking and he was convicted and sentenced to life without parole. I think he ended up dying in a French prison or something like that. We we allowed him to transfer, but I'm thinking that this is this is probably what the administration wants. They want a scalp. They want some

[09:20] somebody that they can point to to show that they're serious about drugs and uh and they prove that they're serious about drugs by taking this narcotics trafficker, which he's not, and giving him a sentence of life without parole. It's the only thing that I can think of. Otherwise, it doesn't make any sense. And let me add one other thing, too. One of the things that I learned early on at the CIA was that the United States is really good at overthrowing governments. It's not hard to do. The real work is what you do after the government has

[09:52] been overthrown. And we don't have the foggiest idea how to bring stability to these countries whose governments we overthrow. Look at Iraq, look at Afghanistan, look at Libya, look at Syria, look at Sudan. You can Somalia. You can look all over the world. And finally, one other point. the overthrow of the Arben's government in Guatemala, the overthrow of it doesn't even have to be Arbenz, it can be any number of a dozen different Central and South American countries may

[10:24] have happened 75 years ago, but in the minds of most Latin Americans, uh it it happened yesterday. And so there's this real distrust of the United States when it comes to the issue of overthrowing governments and allowing chaos to ensue or allow military dictatorships to to entrench themselves in power. Nothing good comes from this kind of US foreign policy. >> I've been always critical of regime changes, especially the mess that we've seen in the Middle East. But I I thought

[10:55] I'd I'd look into the issue with an open mind to see if there's been successful regime changes. I'm like maybe maybe the US has had more successful regime changes that I'm not aware of that people don't talk about. I struggle to find any when I consider something to be successful one successful for the US itself uh from a selfish perspective and number two um does not lead to complete failure of the state as we've seen in Syria, Libya etc. >> Most of the success stories were after World War II so decades and decades ago and recently in the 80s there's Panama and Granada were labeled as successful

[11:26] but that's about it. Um, so it doesn't, you know, it's hard to be optimistic looking at that track record for the US and it and and add that to the split we're seeing with MAGA with Israel versus America first with US involvement in Iran and the Iran war with um the the the Ukraine war is a different story. Um it just makes it to it makes it a very difficult a very not difficult very illogical choice for Trump to take based on this data. Let's go back to the reason that

[11:56] Trump and his administration has given and that's uh Venezuela being labeled as a narco state. Not sure what that means. Maybe you can explain it to us. Um I've looked at the numbers. It didn't make sense. The biggest producers of drugs, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Bolivia. Venezuela is not even in the top five. The biggest transit transit countries for for flows of drugs, Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, Ecuador, Panama. The only one that Venezuela was lodging in in terms of transit was um coke cocaine and but the majority of it is

[12:27] for Europe. It's 24% transit uh through Venezuela mostly to Europe only 8% to the US which puts it below Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, Panama and Ecuador, just above the Dominican Republic. So it just shows that Venezuela is not really that much of a narco state. Um but I I do have a question though. Um, something you've talked about recently on your show is how the CIA used drugs as a way to weaken other countries. They've done it through Afghanistan to weaken Iran and Russia. Is there a possibility that China, maybe even Russia are using drug

[13:00] flows from Latin America, maybe not Venezuela based on those numbers, but maybe other countries to weaken the US? It because Trump has blamed China for all of these flaws of of fentinel. Could there be some some truth to that claim? Yes, I would believe that. Um, friends of mine at the DEA have said over the years that, uh, that's why the fentinel problem is as bad as it is here in the United States. U, a lot of the fentinel comes from from Mexico, of course, but originates in China or the precursors

[13:32] originate in China and are sent to Mexico uh, to be manufactured there. But yeah, um, the Chinese look, the Chinese have the same calculation that the CIA does. Uh we knew that that Afghanistan was producing 93% of the world's heroin, but that almost all of that heroin was destined to for Russia and and Iran and it weakened their societies. That's better for us if they're weak. But the Chinese come to the same calculation that fentinyl flooding into the United

[14:02] States weakens our society and that's better for the Chinese. So sure, I could see that I could see that as a long a long-term Chinese policy. but not like to Venezuela based on the numbers I've just mentioned and you mentioned early in the interview. Um, all right. So, looking at Venezuela, what's the strategy? Is it oil? You talked about oil being very dirty. Is it other natural reserves, natural gas, iron ore, boxite, gold? Is it increasing presence in of Chinese presence in the region? You've talked about the Chinese and and Indian oil refinery starting

[14:33] about five years ago. Um, what is the the the thinking behind the scenes in Washington? >> I think it's all of those things. I think all of those things that you just listed are part of the conversations that are taking place at the White House, the State Department, and the Defense Department. And in addition to that, Guyana just discovered in the last 3 years or so that they are sitting on an ocean of oil. The Venezuelans say, "No, that's our oil." And the Venezuelans momentarily threatened the uh the sanctity of of the border with

[15:04] Guyana. The United States might be able to use that as a pretext. Relations between the US and Guyana are very good. Uh, US oil companies are already there uh, looking for and drilling for Gion oil. So, it could be that as well. >> All right, let's say they move ahead with a regime change. John, um, Trump did talk about authorizing the CIA, which is a bit weird. He talked about it publicly. I thought these things are usually done behind the scenes. First

[15:35] maybe give give us your exact I'm not sure if that was the first time by president. You're saying it is. Tell me what was your reaction when you heard that? Is that a way to threaten Maduro? Is that why he said it? Does that mean anything? >> Yes. >> Yeah. He he he did that just to frighten Maduro. Listen, at the CIA, there is literally nothing that is more highly classified than a covert action program. You you're not even allowed to say the words covert action program in public when you're a CIA officer. So then you have the president of the United States getting up on national television and

[16:06] saying he's just authorized a covert action program to overthrow the the Venezuelan government. First of all, I I don't know if that's true. He may have just said that to frighten Maduro, or he may have actually done it, but again, I I'll repeat myself. Uh what would that entail? It would entail a handful of people. um no more than I don't know a few hundred a thousand at the maximum and they would have to take over the presidential palace or force Maduro out

[16:37] um pacify the military which is impossible at this early stage because the military supports Maduro. It always has uh take over the radio and television stations in the capital and control the major intersections in the capital. First of all, we we're not even sure that that's all possible as part of a covert action program. You would probably need troops on the ground from the defense department. But secondly, what do you do 24 hours later? Let's say Maduro does run off to wherever he's

[17:09] going to run off to. Then what do you do? Again, this was a lesson that I learned at the CIA. There's never a plan for day two. The planning only is about day one. What are your thoughts on his uh on the main opposition leader, Maria Machado? >> I I don't think she's any more than Juan Guaido was. The the right-wing opposition is is um divided. It's always been divided. Um Maria Machado may have won the Nobel Peace Prize, but it's my

[17:40] understanding that she's no more popular than any other right-wing political figure. Uh, Juan Guyaido, it's funny, we we coerced something like 36 countries into into um recognizing Juan Guyaido as the president of Venezuela. In fact, he was just a graduate student here at George Washington University in Washington DC. Uh, never had access to Venezuela. And then there's there's a there's a stipulation in the Venezuelan contra um contract. There's a stipulation in the Venezuelan constitution saying that if

[18:13] the president can't assume the presidency within 30 days of taking the oath of office, then he no longer continues to be the president. And apparently at the White House, nobody bothered to read the Venezuelan constitution because Juan Guaido never left Washington. >> Well, with Maria Machado, I just she doesn't command armies, she doesn't command troops. I just don't see her turning into anything there. I would I if in the event that that Maduro leaves, I would look for the next leader to be a

[18:44] senior military officer. >> Interesting. Um so let's going back to to the original question, if they do go ahead with a coup, the first step would be to take out Maduro. Is that would that be to capture him? Cuz it's not like it's not going to be a surprise coup. There's been so many warnings. There's been a military buildup. So Madura is obviously ready and preparing for this. makes it very difficult to conduct a coup when you talk openly about a covert um action program. Uh but let's say considering the circumstances that we have now, how would they take him out? Would a would a military strike

[19:16] similar to what we saw a decapitation strike like what Israel done in Iran, could that work in Venezuela? >> Cuz you're talking about a sitting president of a country. You're breaking so many rules. You're you're shaking up a system that allowed the US to flourish over the last few decades. you just keep, you know, chipping away at that system that the US built since World War II. >> Yeah. We we have to remember this is an internationally recognized president of a sovereign nation. This is not something that should be considered lightly. Um >> and not in a time of war either

[19:47] >> and right and >> Iran was Iran was funding milit you can criticize or support Iran but they were militarily funding enemies of Israel. So it's a very different circumstance. And when Israel struck Iranian leaders, a lot of people criticized Israel's action. When Israel struck Yemeni leaders, the leadership there, they killed a whole bunch of them in in one strike. A lot of people were critical of Israel's actions. But Yemen was striking Israel. In this case, you've got Maduro asking Trump allegedly for amnesty and potentially wanting to step down, but not declaring any war, direct or

[20:18] indirect, on the US. It's very different circumstances. >> Very different. there there's nothing that's that's that falls on the side of the United States here. Maduro is the internationally recognized president. The United States and Venezuela are not in a state of war. To the best of my knowledge, there are no criminal charges yet pending against uh Maduro. I know that something was introduced in New York the other day, but I I don't know if it's been if it's gone to a grand jury yet. Um,

[20:48] none of the regional powers support an action against Maduro. >> Europe doesn't either. >> And Europe doesn't either. So the US >> So what would be what are the options? What are the options available for regime change? How would they be able to remove Maduro? >> I think that they would have to allow him to leave. Allow him safe passage somewhere. Doha, Moscow, Havana, somewhere. Just let him go. Mhm. >> And then if that's the case though, what

[21:18] do you make of the buildup as well? The 12 warships, the 15,000 troops. You talked about a possibility of a ground invasion. If you look at historically other other regime change operations by the US, how many involved such a a large military presence as we're seeing here? And um what would that military presence military operation look like? Do you do you expect US troops in Venezuela? Because I don't expect most Americans don't support that. I think it's above 70%. don't support any military intervention there. >> No, I I can't imagine that we would get

[21:48] to that point. I can't imagine it. But looking back at previous interventions, we we had six carrier battle groups in the uh in the Persian Gulf and one in the Eastern Mediterranean uh to push the Iraqis out of Kuwait. We had four aircraft carrier battle groups for the uh in the invasion of Kuwait in 2002. We had four carrier battle groups in the region to attack um uh Afghanistan in 2001. We have this one carrier battle group

[22:19] >> but >> not enough for a whole >> not enough operation. >> Not enough for >> especially for such a large country. Venezuela is a massive country very mountainous country as well. >> Mountain and jungle. Mhm. The last question, two questions I have for you is um so if the US does succeed, if we see one of those rare successful regime changes, you said there's never a plan, not a plan B, but a a a postre change plan. >> Um so then what would that look like? Especially looking at history and how

[22:50] other regime changes have gone. What do you expect to happen in Venezuela if Maduro does step down? I I think that we would see a a period of chaos and in the in the end I think I I believe strongly that the military would uh would finally take power. Maybe not permanently but it would be a military >> transitional government. >> Yeah. Transitional government. I I want to make a comparison to Libya if I could. Mario, >> please. uh when the US and NATO overthrew uh Muamar

[23:21] Gaddafi back in the uh during the the Obama administration. I happened to be invited to and and listen to how awful this is. I happened to be invited to the unveiling of the new Libyan Constitution. It was unveiled at a at a lobbying firm here in Washington DC. Right. So, a group of wealthy Libyan exiles paid this lobbying firm and said, "Write us a new constitution." This constitution was better than ours. It called for equal

[23:54] rights for everybody, women, gays, LGBT, whatever. Everybody was equal. They're going to share the oil money. Incredible constitution. Did anybody ever do anything with it? Of course not, because nobody ever heard of these people in Washington DC and nobody even wanted to read their silly constitution. Instead, we've had a period of what 15 16 years of fighting and civil war and chaos and death. And so the United States might think that

[24:24] it's the good guy all the time. The United States might think that it can impose a peace on a country like Venezuela. And it never works out that way. It never works out the way the policy makers think it's going to work out. I remember, and I think I've told you this before, I remember participating in a in a classified video teleconference the night before we attacked Iraq in 2003, February of 2003, and one of the participants at the National Security Council said as we were getting up to walk out, he said,

[24:54] "Tomorrow morning when we cross the border, the Iraqis are going to throw flowers at us." And when I got back to my office, I said to my boss, "Do these people know nothing about history?" and he said, "No, they know nothing about history and nothing's changed between 2003 and 2025." That is so like this is what perplexes me the most, John. Like, you those people I at least I believe they're intelligent people running all these different organizations. So, I don't understand how those people that I'm

[25:26] sure studied history, they know, I'm sure maybe they're even watching you this video, other videos you've done, they understand that coups don't work. >> Mhm. [clears throat] That's why I struggle to see the the the thought process, the the the logic behind making decisions if a regime change is being planned in Venezuela now. Like, how did the people in Iraq expected flowers, sorry, the people that that decided to to to change regimes in Iraq and and have the troops walk into the country? How did they expect to have flowers thrown into foreign troops walking into a sovereign country? It's it's weird.

[25:59] >> Yeah. >> Who are those people? >> I I can I can explain that. Um, in part, number one, they think they're smarter than you are, smarter than everybody else in the room. Number two, back in 2003, it would have worked if they were in charge, but the people in 2003, they didn't know what they were talking about. But today, I'm smarter and I know more and I have more experience, so I'll get it right this time. And uh, and number three, at least in the Middle East, you've got this this voice on your shoulder saying,

[26:30] "Attack Iran. attack Iraq, attack Iran, attack Iraq. And it gets hard to say no after a while, depending on who's the president. >> They're talking now about umah doing business with Venezuela, working directly with Venezuela. Suddenly in the discussion, Venezuela is working directly with Hzbalah and Iran and this network and a new access of evil. Um look, fingers crossed we don't see another Libya here. It would be heartbreaking for for the country of Venezuela. But John, always an absolute pleasure to speak to you. Thank you, sir. >> Pleasure is mine. And good to see you

[27:01] again, Mario.
