The house of cards theory
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The house of cards theory is the strategic premise John Kiriakou identifies behind the 2026 Iran war, and the reason he considers the war unwinnable.

Asked what mad-genius strategy might be hiding behind Donald Trump's conduct of the war, Kiriakou answered that the genius was borrowed and mistaken: "I believe that he believed Netanyahu's propaganda that if we decapitate the Iranian government, the whole thing comes down like a house of cards. And I think that he believed that was the genius strategy. And instead, he's gotten us into a war that we're not getting out of."

The same premise was sold before the war began: "it was the Israelis who convinced Trump that Iran was a house of cards."

What winning would require

Kiriakou sets the victory condition explicitly. "To win, we need to wipe out the entire Iranian government and military, which is not possible. And install a pro-American and pro-Israeli government. Essentially a puppet government. It's not going to happen. And anything short of that is an American-Israeli loss."

The Iranian victory condition is far cheaper: "What the Iranians need to win is just to survive the war. And they're going to survive."

On the claim that the war would liberate Iranians, he was equally short: "The Iranians don't want our liberation. They've been clear about it from the beginning. We overstepped. We overreached like we always do. And like we always do, we have no exit strategy."

The decapitation campaign the theory produced is recorded at the Netanyahu death rumour; the operational verdict is at air wars are overrated.

See also

- Air wars are overrated
- Benjamin Netanyahu
- Donald Trump
- 2026 Iran war
