Venezuelan heavy crude and the refining bottleneck
==================================================

John Kiriakou''s explanation of American pressure on Venezuela begins by dismissing the stated one. "Regardless of what the administration is saying, Venezuela is not an originator of drugs. And the drugs that do pass through Venezuela, primarily from Colombia and Ecuador, are on their way to West Africa for then transshipment to Western Europe. Those drugs don''t come to the United States."

The chemistry, and the monopoly it created

What he offers instead is a refining argument. "Venezuela sits on an ocean of oil. That oil is very, very dirty. It''s full of sulfur, and it requires specialty refining using very heavy chemicals. Well, that specialty refining, until about five years ago, could only be done at refineries in Houston, Texas." The leverage was therefore physical: whoever owned the only refineries that could handle the crude effectively owned the crude.

What sanctions did to it

"And then we put sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry. Well, the Indians and the Chinese both built refineries that could purify dirty Venezuelan oil. And about five years ago the Chinese announced that they were going to build a refinery to process Venezuelan oil in the Caribbean." The monopoly was gone, and with it the sanction''s point.

The face-saving move

Kiriakou''s reading of what follows is that the policy cannot be reversed openly. "We can''t admit we were wrong and lift sanctions. So what can we do to save face? We overthrow Maduro, try to install a friendly puppet government, lift sanctions, and we start refining Venezuelan oil again. So I think this is really about China more than anything else."

Houston, then Asia, then the Caribbean

Kiriakou traces a chain in which American sanctions built the capacity that now worries Washington. Venezuelan crude is "very, very dirty, they have an ocean of it, but it's very high in sulfur content" and needs heavy processing; "you can't even use it to turn into gasoline for your cars. It's mostly made into home heating oil because it's so dirty and high in sulfur."

"Until just five or six years ago, the only place that you could refine that oil was in Houston, Texas. We built refineries that were specialized just to handle Venezuelan oil. But then, of course, we sanctioned the Venezuelan oil industry."

The industry did not shut down. "The Indians and the Chinese built new refineries to handle Venezuelan oil, and they shipped the oil there. The Chinese are swimming in money, and so they decided that instead of shipping the Venezuelan oil all the way to China, they'll just build the refinery in the Caribbean, refine it right there, and ship it out from the Caribbean. And the United States doesn't like that."

His conclusion: "the bottom line here, I think, is China." He calls the American build-up "a slow-motion response, or a delayed response, to China's decision five years ago to build an oil refinery in the Caribbean."

See also

- Venezuela regime change (2026)
- Maduro Capture
- China as economic threat
- Sanctions Effectiveness
- Venezuela Boat Strikes
