[00:00] I think he's very serious about wanting to get the two sides to the negotiating table in Istanbul. He has said repeatedly that he's willing to make the trip if it will make a peace deal more likely to be approved or even to be negotiated in the first place. And uh the the Ukrainians say fine, that's great. The Russians say it's not necessary yet. There is no peace deal. So let them work out some of these details first. At the same time, I also think that the president really believed
[00:30] that he could use the bully pulpit to push the two sides together and he's been stiff armed by Vladimir Putin. He doesn't appreciate being stiff armed. So, I think that allowing these Ukrainian um offensive operations to to go forward is one way in which the Trump administration can try to nudge the Russians to the negotiating table. You remember, I mean, we were kids, you and I, when this was happening, but I'm sure you've studied it. Uh, when the US and
[01:02] the North Vietnamese began to negotiate peace in the Paris peace talks, peace during the the Vietnam War, that's when some of the fiercest fighting took place. And it's because both sides wanted to get a leg up that they could then negotiate away in Paris. And I wouldn't be surprised if if both the Russians and the Ukrainians have come to that conclusion here that maybe you step up operations now and then you can negotiate it away later in Istanbul. But you know there's it's a complicated
[01:34] because you mentioned that that President Trump doesn't like to be stiff armed by Vladimir Putin but he's kind of being stiff armed by Zalinski as well as a matter of fact. So this is the second uh direct conversation between Russia and Ukraine of course in Istanbul. Uh here is uh the lead delegate for the Ukraine side Umarov and coming out talking about what they want to accomplish. And as you do this kind of sounds like that Umarov thinks he's on the upper end of the power dynamic and doesn't at all sound like they're
[02:04] getting close to a peace settlement. We've been telling Russia for a very long time, this war must end. And the whole world supports us in that. We're calling for a real work to end this war. The first necessary steps are clear to everyone. A ceasefire, humanitarian actions, and preparation for a leaders meeting. If Russia is serious about the ending the war, it will move forward on this. If not, international sanctions
[02:37] must follow. Okay. So, so obviously Russia is not going to do a ceasefire first. They've said that emphatically from day one. Have never said anything different. So, Umarov knows for sure that that's not going to get done there. And then if they don't, then we're going to going to sanctions. So, is this an attempt, and I've heard some people suggest that it is, for the Ukraine side, not to stiff arm Trump, but to try and coers Trump into going back on trying to find a settlement and to instead getting back on their train with sanctions.
[03:08] Oh, I think absolutely. Yes. You know, we shouldn't underestimate Bod Malinski. He's not an idiot. Uh sometimes we like to portray him as one, but he really isn't. And with the Brits, the French, the Germans, the Poles, and a whole bunch of other allies quietly pushing Trump to keep up those Biden era uh programs, aid programs, military aid programs to Ukraine. I think that Zalinski probably has concluded that Trump can be manipulated at least in the
[03:41] short term. If the fighting is still as serious as it is with dozens of people being killed every day on both sides, it allows Zilinski to then go back to Trump and say, "You see, I would love to have peace, but the Russians are such ogres. They're killing our people. They're firing rockets at civilian areas. They're hitting apartment buildings and parks and hospitals. The Brits and French and Germans are with us. We know that you want to be with us, too. That that argument might have a little bit of
[04:12] weight right now. And and you know who else says it wants to pile on to that? Uh there's a whole group of people in the US led by uh Sydney Blu Sydney Blumenthal, Richard Blumenthal, and Lindsey Graham. And that's right, Gary, if you can pull this one up out of the car here. Uh Jack Keane was also pretty uh emphatic earlier today. So the leverage has got to be I think number one military assistance and give them the robust air defense systems and the other things they desperately need. Why
[04:42] is that? Because once Putin sees that the United States is still committed to Ukraine, he knows he can't achieve victory. The evidence is already right in front of us. We're 39 months into the war, Maria. 39 long months. That's how much time it took for us to defeat Nazi Germany. And Putin has not succeeded. He hasn't even taken the entire Dombas region, which is what he wanted to take in 2014. So, he cannot succeed if the
[05:14] United States is providing military assistance. He knows that for a fact. Second thing, let's issue the crippling sanctions. That is all part of the process. Yeah, there you go with those crippling sanctions again. But John, I got to ask you. We've had now nearly three and a half years of crippling sanctions, and it has had the opposite effect. Russia's economy is stronger than it was, not weaker. Ours is weaker than it was, not stronger. And Russia keeps going forward on the battlefield. So, come on, man. What gives? Yeah,
[05:44] Danny, I if there has ever been a lesson for the United States on sanctions, it has been this conflict. The the Russian The Russians have not been harmed by sanctions. Not in any way. There are gigantic Russian markets available in China, in India, all over the rest of the world. And the Chinese have had I'm sorry, the Russians have had no problem at all selling their oil and their natural gas and anything else they want to sell. Most of the world does not have sanctions on Russia. So, we can sanction
[06:15] Russia from now until kingdom come. It's not going to harm them in any way. Just like in Iran, the Iranians lack for nothing. nothing. They don't need us. They don't need Wall Street. They don't need American investment. They have Russian and Chinese investment and others. So, this ought to be a lesson to the United States that sanctions don't work. If anything, they harm only the poorest and most vulnerable in the target country. We need to do something else. Oh, I have an idea. Like maybe
[06:47] negotiations. We used to joke when I was in the CIA. We used to joke about the George W. Bush administration and how we had never seen anybody work so hard to not talk to our enemies. The situation was the same under Joe Biden. It It's hard to to think back on an administration where they worked so hard to not talk to our enemies. So maybe if we talk to them and let the diplomats do what they're being paid to do, we might accomplish
[07:19] something that sanctions have been unable to accomplish. Now, let me ask you a question here kind of related to that in terms of uh especially back to the decision maker in the United States of of President Trump. One wonders how much how much accurate information he's been given by I mean, let's just say the CIA since that's what you have some experience with in in accurately assessing what the balance of power between the two sides is in all the areas you're talking about logistics, diplomatic, manpower, etc. everything
[07:50] that goes into what makes a nation state have the power to fight and win a war. And obviously it's off the charts in the favor of the Russian side. Uh but sometimes I get the idea that that Trump hears things like uh well let me give you an example. So, uh, the UN ambassador for Russia, Nenzia, Ambassador Nenzia went on the UN Security Council just a couple of days ago and said that, "Hey, by the way, we'd love to do diplomacy, but if not,
[08:21] yeah, Gary, hang on. Sorry if you complain. As long as Kiev tries to prolong the war and provoke Russia by striking residential and civilian infrastructure on our territory, we will continue our special military operation and destroy objects associated with the military potential of the Kiev regime. and no new anti-Russian sanctions, arm supplies to Ukraine, or other hostile steps towards Russia will prevent the inevitable military defeat of the Zalinski
[08:53] regime. The choice is now up to Ukraine. Peace as a result of negotiations or inevitable defeat on the battlefield with different conditions for ending the conflict. So, you could say if you're Trump, just you say, "All right, I got Zillinsky here talking that they're going to win and they just need all this support here and that they can turn the tide, etc." And then I got the the Russian side over here with Nenzia in this case saying that no, we're either going to take what we want on negotiations with this 12-point plan they put out, which is basically terms of surrender, or we're going to win on
[09:23] the battlefield. Now, Trump just looking at the two of this and any any American for that matter can go, well, they're both just, you know, grandstanding, etc. But if you look at the power dynamics behind, one can back up the words and one can't. So, if that was the case, then you would not want to play an a general. They're trying to balance things out, but you would tell this side, "Dude, you guys got to get off the table here or get off your butt and get to the table or I'm going to walk." I mean, how do you see that part? Yeah, I have to agree with you. One of the
[09:55] things too that we're not talking about, when I say we, I mean Americans and and especially American policy makers, is that the the Russians have a virtually unlimited supply of ground troops that they can just throw into the into the meat grinder. um not just Russians and there have been huge losses on the Russian side and that's because of Russian military strategy but North Koreans and Bellarussians and some reports indicating Chinese who have volunteered to go to Russia or go to the
[10:26] front lines and fight on behalf of Russia. Ukraine is a much smaller country. They can't keep this up forever. The Russians can keep it up forever and Russia is a nuclear power. So I'm going to make a guess here or make a prediction. It's not going to be very bold or creative, but what we're going to see in the end is that the Russians keep uh the disputed territories, the Donbass, Donets, Gluhans, Keron, they're going to keep Crimea. Uh Ukraine will never ever be a
[10:58] member of NATO. Uh they they'll likely join the European Union eventually, maybe even on a fast track. But I think that the that the Russians are going to get 90% of what they want. The one thing they might not get is probably the least important, and that's what the Russians are calling denazification of the Ukrainian regime. Um, the Ukrainians always argue that there are no Nazis. There may be a handful of neo-Nazis, but not in any positions of power. I think the Russians repeat that for propaganda
[11:28] purposes. I think they'll probably be willing to negotiate it