[00:00] What do you think is going to happen with Iran? We the bombing that happened with the US bombing the the nuclear sites and then Israel and Iran going back and forth and there's talks that there's going to be maybe a continuation of that before December of this year. >> I talked to a lot of very serious Iran experts, scholars in Washington. As recently as yesterday, I talked to Treata Parcy, who's probably the most important Iran scholar in America, and universally they believe that that
[00:30] Israel will attack Iran again before the 1st of December. Yes. >> I I mean, they kind of have to if you look at the opportunity that they have to do so because you have an administration that will kind of look the other way and has given Israel the opportunity to do so. >> Yes. Uh, so if the administration changes or the midterm elections change, that window's gone. >> It's got to happen now. >> It's got to happen fast. And also, >> it's a shame. It's a shame because I'll tell you, the the JCPOA, whether the Republicans liked it or not, was actually working. It was exactly the
[01:03] same inspection regime that we had with the Iraqis from UN Security Council uh resolution 986 and 1060, right? Inspectors were able to go in unannounced. There were lead seals on every site. There were cameras everywhere that were doing live feeds back to the United Nations in uh in Vienna. It was actually working. But Donald Trump pulled us out and then the Iranians started enriching uranium, not to weapons grade, but enriching it to a
[01:34] higher uh level than it had been enriched. And then the Israelis said, "Oh my god, they're going to build a bomb." Despite the fact that the CIA had published three separate national intelligence estimates saying that the Iranians are not building a bomb, they're enriching slightly. So, they're keeping their options open, but they're not building a bomb. And then Netanyahu said, and this is another thing Netanyahu, I was in the CIA a long time. No matter who was president, literally
[02:05] every single time Netanyahu came to Washington, he'd say, "Please bomb Iran. Please bomb Iran. Please bomb Iran." And every single president said, "We're not going to bomb Iran for you." Until this one, >> John, what was the what was the idea though? Bomb Iran and then what? Regime change. What was the plan? >> The eventual goal of course is regime change. >> But that's very difficult with that country because it's not >> extraordinarily difficult. >> Yeah. It's not one person. It's it's embedded in the entire >> I mentioned to you offline that as much
[02:36] as I hate and disagree with everything that Hillary Clinton stands for and has said, she did say one thing about Iran that she was exactly right about. She said Iran is actually not a theocracy. Iran is a military dictatorship. It's not run by the Ayatollas. It's run by the IRGC and that makes it more dangerous. >> Doesn't the Ayatollah control the IRGC? technically but on a day-to-day day basis not not really no not anymore 100% absolutely
[03:07] >> noi died >> under Humeni >> oh yeah >> yes he absolutely did under k it's really not in his bailey wick >> so if Israel were to attack what do you think their game plan is um I mean it would have to be through ground forces mainly because that's what >> which would be impossible country's too big, too many people, too mountainous. >> Well, no, I didn't mean I didn't mean Yeah, I agree with you. I don't think ground force as in troops going in, but I think indirectly covertly maybe going
[03:37] into the country or they're already Msad's already country. >> They're already there picking off nuclear scientists and generals all over the country. And the the Israelis have been very very successful in recruiting Afghan illegal aliens, >> which all the Afghans got deported after this war. Right. Did they like with lightning speed too? >> They rounded up all the Afghans in the country and just deported I think it was like one one week. >> Thousands of them. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. In one week everybody's expelled. >> Yeah. Just complete. Whether you're
[04:07] >> because there is no refugee program in Iran. These people are literally starving. They're on the street corners begging for food, begging for clothing. And then the Israelis say, "Hey, you know, we'll give you 50 bucks if you tell us where the general lives." And they're like, "Yeah, he lives right there. Here's $50. Oh, that's that's a good investment if you're Israel. >> Yeah. I mean, that's great intel >> for pennies on the dollar. >> Yeah. >> So, what do you think that's going to what's going to happen there if Israel attacks? I think we are in an unusually dangerous period right now
[04:39] >> as America or >> the whole world really got it >> because you know there was always this line that American presidents wouldn't allow Netanyahu to cross but now we have let him cross it and the genie's out of the bottle. You can't put it back in. And so what does it mean? We bombed Iran on behalf of the Israelis because we had these bunker buster bombs, the 30,000 MOABs, right? Mother of all bombs. And
[05:11] um at least that's what we called them at the agency. And um the Israelis have concluded that no, that's not good enough. We didn't destroy all the underground facilities. They were deeper than we thought they were. And so we have to use more or bigger or nuclear. And we can't just doing keep doing these pin pricks. We have to overthrow the entire government. You can't overthrow the entire government. It's decentralized. It's just simply not possible. And see, this is a beef I had with American war planners, too. This is
[05:42] something I learned early on at the agency is there is never ever a plan to get out, right? It's easy to go in and just start killing people and overthrow a government. It is almost impossible to make a clean escape. And then what do you do then? and you're in Iraq for 20 years and you're in Afghanistan for 20 years and you have 10,000 people dead and then what do you do? You've killed 2 million people over there. >> Iran's a little different because you got 90 million population. It's huge. >> You have the terrain. The education
[06:13] level is different than Afghanistan. Iraq. >> That's right. It's a sophisticated society. They're highly educated and they're patriotic. Even if they don't like the Ayatollas, they love their country. Nobody wants to be invaded and occupied by a foreign power. >> Iranians are very pro-America. The actual people are very pro-America. >> But [clears throat] yeah, but to your point, if they get attacked, then they have no choice but to have to fight. >> Yeah, that's the unfortunate thing. >> Plus, you know, one of the things that we as a country seem to not take into
[06:45] consideration is what are the reactions going to be from Russia and China? They're not just going to sit there and twiddle their thumbs and watch us invade, you know, Iran. Well, Russia's kind of bogged down with Ukraine and I think China, >> but they're winning. And the Russians have not gone so far as to say that Iran falls under their nuclear umbrella. They could. >> Yeah, >> they haven't yet, but they're actually winning in Ukraine. If they wanted to divert troops to protect the Iranians,
[07:15] that would only take a week or two. But hasn't history shown that when a country fights at two borders or two different wars, they they fall? >> Yeah. But what I'm saying is if they wanted to just declare victory in Ukraine and go home, just do a blitz. >> They could just do that right now. >> Yeah. Cuz what do the Russians want in Ukraine? They want Donetsk and Luhansk, >> which they have. >> Which they have. >> They want the Crimea, which they also have. >> Yeah. >> The rest is gravy. I would think if that were to happen, that scenario were to happen, then China would just go after
[07:46] Taiwan and just take Taiwan because they would know. >> See, and and I don't I'm probably in the minority on that, but the Chinese actually don't have a history of imperialism. They they fought a little border skirmish with North Vietnam in the 70s. They've fought two little skirmishes with India over the years, most recently a year ago. just little, you know, shots across the border. Tibet, of course, they invaded and occupied. That's different. The Chinese
[08:16] have one foreign military base and as nuts as it sounds, they share it with us. It's in Djibouti. I've been there. Camp Lemonet. When the >> Where haven't you? >> I know. The when the French pulled out, they just abandoned Camp Lemonet. And the Djiboutians asked us, "You want this?" And we said, "Yeah, it's 16 miles from Yemen. Sure, we'll take it." And then the Chinese is like, "Yeah, we'll take some, too." So there's literally a chain link fence right down the middle. And on the right side is the Americans and on the left side is the Chinese. That's the only Chinese military base in
[08:48] the world outside of China. So it's not like they're imperialists. And the Chinese, you know, we're really the ones who lead the charge saying that the Chinese are always on the brink of invading Taiwan. Even the Taiwan government doesn't believe that's the case. >> Well, I mean, China doesn't recognize Taiwan. They're all Chinese. >> No, they're all Chinese. They're all Chinese citizens. They all have Chinese >> eventually. They'll be reunited. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. The Chinese have never said reunited by force. We say it. >> I see. >> Yeah. >> That's the big difference. >> Yeah. And then, you know, we send we
[09:19] send the the Seventh Fleet to the South China Sea. They're like, "The Chinese are in the South China Sea." Yeah. >> Cuz we're there. >> Yeah. It's the South China Sea. What What would our reaction be if the Chinese brought an air aircraft carrier to the Caribbean? We'd lose our minds. So, I'm not worried about the Chinese as an offensive force. You know, there was a there was a cartoon in The Onion this week that made me laugh out loud. Um, it was about it was a bunch of Chinese guys and they
[09:50] were sitting like this and it said, "China has changed its official policy to just sit back and watch the American government collapse on its own." >> That's what it feels like. >> Yeah. Yeah.