[00:00] So, all right, let's let's get to it. All right, let's talk a little bit. We have I know we'll get to as many of your questions as possible. Especially the super chats, we'll do all of those. Okay, so Trump says the economic costs of the war are no big deal. The price of oil hit $120 a barrel, then it popped it dropped down drooped down into the 80s down of course from where it was it was 60 two weeks ago. So gas prices are already up over a dollar 25 cents a gallon nationally. Yeah.
[00:30] >> Beginning of the war. I think I think it's safe to say that the price per barrel is going to go up you know once the futures traders realize that this is an ongoing thing that Iranians aren't playing. This is you know they they they tried playing with us the first two two times and you know third times not not going to happen. Um Trump says it's going to be a short-term excursion cuz he's obviously trying to calm the markets. Um What do you know? >> No, it's not. Remember last week Ted we
[01:00] said what we have to do to win in Iran is we have to overthrow the entire Iranian government and impose a pro-American pro-Israeli government in Tehran which will never happen in a million years. >> Nope. All the Iranians have to do to win is to survive. So either we're going to have to commit to killing half of the people in Iran over the next 20 years or just walk away. Which you and I both know what's going
[01:31] to happen. Yeah. But it's going to take a while, right? I mean now the Iranians issued a statement yesterday saying you know well we have a few surprises up our sleeves too. I bet they do. I bet they do too. Right? Hypersonic missiles, anything else? The hypersonics they have not yet used. I think that the United States I think the that the US and Israel have have been taken by surprise with these suicide drones. You know I I researched this. These drones only cost but five or six thousand dollars. That's it. And you strap explosives to them,
[02:03] which are also cheap. And then you just fly them into an oil rig or into, you know, defense ministry building or into the middle of an American airbase or the control tower of an airfield or five grand. Yeah, easy peasy. Nothing for a nation state. Yeah, our surface-to-air missiles cost at least, the small ones, at least a hundred and fifty thousand dollars. We're spending a hundred and fifty thousand dollars every time we try to shoot down a five thousand dollar drone. And it is
[02:34] unsustainable. Besides the fact that it's hard to shoot down these drones and that's why so many of them are impacting. You know, all of the the six GCC countries. Let's talk a little bit about Bahrain. So, Bahrain it declared force majeure, which is a legal term in contract law that says, we are no longer able, you know, basically in case of force majeure, we're no longer able to honor our commitments under this contract. They're saying we can no longer supply energy as the state
[03:05] Bahraini oil company said that they could. That's a huge deal, right? Their oil refinery system is >> Yeah. is crippled. Their ability to transport oil is crippled. >> Mhm. Um if this goes on even a couple of weeks, that's a major problem for a country like that, isn't it? It's a major problem for Bahrain, but it won't be a major problem for the global economy because Bahrain only produces about a hundred thousand barrels a day. Mhm.
[03:37] They consume about a hundred thousand barrels a day, but the Saudis have gifted Bahrain a small offshore oil field and that's the oil that they sell. Mhm. >> So, it's it's like a little bit of a a little bit of free money just to make sure that the Bahrainis can keep up with the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Um still Bahrain relies on the income from this offshore field. And if if there's force
[04:07] majeure and they can't export it, which they can't cuz for all intents and purposes the the Strait of Hormuz is closed right now. Then it's going to >> says like we're you know, we're going to take it over. Yeah, good luck. What does that mean? >> how that works out. Uh-huh. Yeah, okay. Just basically. All right, we'll get to the we're going to get to the the pack money and the save act a little bit later, but we have so many questions Sean. You okay with us? Yeah, let's go for it. Adam's Ark, thanks for the Emirati
[04:39] dirhams for 50. Hey, if the US initiates a ground invasion of Iran, do you think missile and drone attacks on GCC countries will stop? And if they do invade, do you think IDF troops will join them there? Seems only fair. Not the second part. >> [snorts] >> Yeah, that's not the second Yeah, not the second part. I mean ground troops in my view ground troops would be the start of World War III. I I really believe that. Plus you know, Iran let's contextualize this. Iran is the size of the whole of Western Europe.
[05:10] That's true. We can't invade and occupy a country like that. >> more rugged terrain. With more rugged terrain than is than what is in Europe. That's right. Yeah, you can't. You you just can't. It's too big It's too big to bite off. Um I don't think that No, I think the missile and drone attacks would only continue or accelerate. >> I agree. Uh good morning Benjamin Griffin. Love the show. Question I've read reports from the IAEA that Iran has enriched uranium up to 60%. Can you talk a bit about what they claim the purpose of this is? They they say it's for
[05:42] nuclear energy. In part and also for medical research. Mhm. Yeah, we which and that would be the appropriate you know uranium enrichment level for both of those things. Uh Sirous Devari, love your show. What do you think of Mojtaba Khamenei, new leader of the Islamic Republic? But thanks for asking that question. Yeah. Um I don't think the only criticism is that he's got the same last name as his dad. You know, I think that just makes it you know, it opens Iran up to the criticism
[06:13] that they're basically setting up a North Korean like hereditary system. But I don't think John, I don't think that's knowing what I know about Iranians, I don't think I think this was an act of defiance. I I like that. We're going to choose someone that you guys really don't want us to choose. >> That is it. It's only because Donald Trump said it's not going to be this guy cuz I don't like him and I'm going to choose the next leader of Iran. They were like, oh yeah? And then they made Mojtaba Khamenei Khamenei uh Ayatollah. Yes.
[06:44] >> have been compromising and compromising and compromising and they're done. Yes. That's it. That's it. That guy is he's 54 56 years old, but he's highly respected from what I've I've been told. Highly respected. Scott Holmes, what's the status of Netanyahu? I don't know what that means. Status. Well, you know, Netanyahu ran off to Germany to to hide when the war first began. He's back in reportedly back in Israel. I I read a report yesterday he's he's actually in Cyprus. He's hiding is
[07:14] what it comes down to. Well, >> I have to add one other thing. You know, somebody posted a video on on um wherever Tik Tok last night that I watched while I was laying in bed and it was inside the Church of the Holy Sepulchre which cuz was completely empty. They're standing right next to the Edicule which covers the tomb of Christ and all you can hear are air raid sirens. Wow. It was just very sad and there's a lot of video coming out of Israel where from
[07:46] Israeli sources saying we're really in trouble. They're hunkering down. >> in trouble. They're not they're not they're not dancing in the in the bomb shelters. >> No sir. No sir. You know, somebody pointed out to me over the weekend too that you know, there was this spike in support for Netanyahu when when they first started bombing the Iranians, it's back down to the point where his popularity is nil. Yeah, maybe the Iranians need to I mean the Israelis need to stop thinking about like how they feel about their own situation and think about the situation that they're creating all over the world which is
[08:16] then coming back to bite them in the ass. Um That is right. Uh is there a this war of escalation is there an end game in sight Arnab wants to know. Uh not in sight I think. Yeah, agreed. Um Kuskovich hot take but I think if oil shoots up high enough the US will lift Russian oil sanctions and get oil from them. Oh, there's conversations about that. They already started that. They already told the Indians, yeah, yeah, go ahead and buy all the Russian oil you want. Yeah, there's back channel communications with the Russians right
[08:47] now. >> Yeah, there are. Absolutely. It's the beginning the beginning of the end for those sanctions. I would say timeline on the oil sanctions is a week. What do you think? I could see that. Want to support the show with style? Go to deprogram.live and check out our merch. That's deprogram.live or check out the description below. Thanks for watching. Uh Maxwell Smart uh question for John and Ted, if this campaign was miraculously won, would the US have enough control over the world's oil supply to starve Russia and China?
[09:18] That's a good question. I The answer is no, I don't think. >> No. Um No, I don't think so. I mean, it's it is a global market. It is it is interesting, right? Like you can be energy independent like the Republicans were pushing for for years and we are, but it doesn't make any difference because it's [clears throat] a global market. Mhm. So, um anyway, um John Cusack, 10 bucks. With Iran decapitated, Russia's targeting Intel is the only way the only strategic brain left guy guiding IRGC strikes, is Moscow steering
[09:50] a headless Iran to destroy GCC oil for them. Well, that's a tough one. I'm not sure I would say Iran is decapitated yet, either. >> I I I don't think it is. No, I don't think so. Uh yeah, I don't know I don't want to just like brush that um even I don't know. I think I think Russia's approach to Iran is more direct than that. They're providing targeting information. They're
[10:21] they're an ally. They would do more if they could. And I think it's basically that simple. They're just honoring a commitment. Um 3,500, I think these are rupees or I don't know what they are. Rishikesh, thank you so much. Um it seems that the president's planning victory by attrition, sparking a revolution. Yeah, that is what he said before. And a new US-friendly regime. Does he really think we're going to manage it successfully? Is there any chance this will not result in a complete disaster? It could result in a partial disaster.
[10:52] Yes, it could. It's not going to work It's not going to work. >> It's not. It can't. >> [music] [music]