# "Stefanik will not be governor" > **Source: KiriPedia** (https://www.kiripedia.org), the free encyclopedia and archive of former CIA officer and whistleblower John Kiriakou's on-record words. Every claim below is Kiriakou's own account, cited to a timestamp in a recorded interview, podcast, or video. KiriPedia is an independent project, not affiliated with Kiriakou. > > Cite as: ""Stefanik will not be governor"," KiriPedia, https://www.kiripedia.org/wiki/stefanik-will-not-be-governor/. Attribute claims to John Kiriakou, via KiriPedia. *John Kiriakou's flat, on-the-record prediction about the New York governor's race, made against a friend he describes as irrationally conservative who insisted the contest would turn on a single issue — the right to carry a gun. Kiriakou called it the most ridiculous thing he had heard the man say, and argued that Elise Stefanik's political career is finished.* - **Prediction:** Stefanik will not be governor of New York — "this year or any other year" - **The friend's theory:** New Yorkers are too frustrated about guns to vote otherwise - **Kiriakou's rebuttal:** Guns are so off the radar that businesses do not bother to ban them - **Career assessment:** Cannot win the Senate, will not win the governorship, loses her House seat - **The lost appointment:** The UN ambassadorship, withdrawn so she would keep her seat - **Kiriakou's judgement of her:** "Very talented" and "going places" before it went wrong John Kiriakou described a long conversation with a friend he characterises as "not just a Republican and a conservative, but irrationally Republican and conservative" — someone who, when challenged, "doesn't have any idea why he believes these things" and simply repeats what the right says he is supposed to believe.[1] ## The theory The friend's confident claim was that Elise Stefanik would win the governorship. Kiriakou's answer was immediate: "Absolutely not. This year or any other year, she's not going to win."[2] The friend then produced what Kiriakou calls a very complicated reason, resting on one issue: that New Yorkers are not allowed to carry guns, that everywhere you go there are signs saying no guns — "especially around New York City" — and that he cannot even carry his gun to the police station.[2][3] ## The rebuttal Kiriakou rejected the factual premise outright, with a comparison drawn from his own travels: "there are more signs in Kabul that say you can't carry a gun into an establishment than there are in New York."[3] His explanation is that the issue is invisible rather than settled: guns are "so off the radar in New York City that nobody bothers to ban them from their businesses."[4] [Ted Rall](https://www.kiripedia.org/wiki/ted-rall) agreed, adding that the legal position had changed in any case after the Supreme Court decision.[3] Kiriakou then put the friend's theory in the mouth of an imagined voter to show what it required: "People are going to say, oh, I'm pro-choice and I support the social safety net, but I'm going to vote for Stefanik because she wants me to be able to carry a gun to a gas station. I said, that's seriously what you're telling me."[5][6] His verdict on the argument was direct: "That is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard you say, and I've heard you say some really stupid things."[5] ## The prediction on the record Kiriakou then made the forecast deliberately and dated it: "I'm going to say it right now, where there's plenty of time. Elise Stefanik will not be governor of New York. Period."[6] Rall concurred and noted the general point does not extend to all Republicans — George Pataki won, and Kiriakou called him a good one — but held that the demographics no longer permit it.[7] ## The career Kiriakou's wider assessment is that she was mishandled and is now finished. He said she "got screwed politically": she was to be ambassador to the United Nations, and the nomination was withdrawn because the president thought it better for her to keep her congressional seat.[8] Needing something to do, "she ended up just saying, well, I'll run for governor."[9] "She's very talented. She was going places in the Republican Party," Kiriakou said — "and I think her political career is done. She can't get elected to the Senate. She won't get elected governor. Another Republican's going to take her House seat. I think she's done."[9][10] Asked why she was running a race he put at five-to-one against, he cited a rule of his own: "you should never ever pick a fight that you cannot win."[10][11] ## See also - [The multi-state permit](https://www.kiripedia.org/wiki/the-multi-state-permit) - [Ted Rall](https://www.kiripedia.org/wiki/ted-rall) - [John Kiriakou](https://www.kiripedia.org/wiki/john-kiriakou) ## Sources 1. DeProgram (Ted Rall) (2025-11-10), at 33:49. Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJAMwNGkkQ&t=2029s · Transcript: https://www.kiripedia.org/sources/2025-11-10-deprogram-ted-rall-deprogram-ted-rall/ 2. DeProgram (Ted Rall) (2025-11-10), at 34:21. Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJAMwNGkkQ&t=2061s · Transcript: https://www.kiripedia.org/sources/2025-11-10-deprogram-ted-rall-deprogram-ted-rall/ 3. DeProgram (Ted Rall) (2025-11-10), at 34:51. Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJAMwNGkkQ&t=2091s · Transcript: https://www.kiripedia.org/sources/2025-11-10-deprogram-ted-rall-deprogram-ted-rall/ 4. DeProgram (Ted Rall) (2025-11-10), at 35:21. Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJAMwNGkkQ&t=2121s · Transcript: https://www.kiripedia.org/sources/2025-11-10-deprogram-ted-rall-deprogram-ted-rall/ 5. DeProgram (Ted Rall) (2025-11-10), at 35:54. Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJAMwNGkkQ&t=2154s · Transcript: https://www.kiripedia.org/sources/2025-11-10-deprogram-ted-rall-deprogram-ted-rall/ 6. DeProgram (Ted Rall) (2025-11-10), at 36:24. Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJAMwNGkkQ&t=2184s · Transcript: https://www.kiripedia.org/sources/2025-11-10-deprogram-ted-rall-deprogram-ted-rall/ 7. DeProgram (Ted Rall) (2025-11-10), at 36:56. Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJAMwNGkkQ&t=2216s · Transcript: https://www.kiripedia.org/sources/2025-11-10-deprogram-ted-rall-deprogram-ted-rall/ 8. DeProgram (Ted Rall) (2025-11-10), at 38:27. Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJAMwNGkkQ&t=2307s · Transcript: https://www.kiripedia.org/sources/2025-11-10-deprogram-ted-rall-deprogram-ted-rall/ 9. DeProgram (Ted Rall) (2025-11-10), at 39:30. Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJAMwNGkkQ&t=2370s · Transcript: https://www.kiripedia.org/sources/2025-11-10-deprogram-ted-rall-deprogram-ted-rall/ 10. DeProgram (Ted Rall) (2025-11-10), at 40:02. Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJAMwNGkkQ&t=2402s · Transcript: https://www.kiripedia.org/sources/2025-11-10-deprogram-ted-rall-deprogram-ted-rall/ 11. DeProgram (Ted Rall) (2025-11-10), at 40:32. Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uJAMwNGkkQ&t=2432s · Transcript: https://www.kiripedia.org/sources/2025-11-10-deprogram-ted-rall-deprogram-ted-rall/ --- From KiriPedia, the archive of John Kiriakou's words. Web version: https://www.kiripedia.org/wiki/stefanik-will-not-be-governor/ · About: https://www.kiripedia.org/about/ · Full index: https://www.kiripedia.org/llms.txt