Kiriakou’s evidence for taking the meeting seriously was the guest list rather than the agenda. Looking at Russian media that day, he reported that “the Russians are bringing a who’s who of their top diplomats and negotiators. So, at least from the Russian side, they’re taking this very seriously.” [1]
Putin’s reputation
Asked whether Putin is “the reticent madman that’s being portrayed in the American media,” Kiriakou’s answer was one word — “Nope” — followed by his reason: “Not if he’s bringing Lavrov and a stable of seasoned diplomats. No.” Told that Putin was also coming himself, he agreed: “Seriously. And his own self. That’s right. This is a summit. An actual summit.” [2]
The choice of Anchorage
On the venue, Kiriakou declined the symbolic readings on offer. His co-host had described a New York Times columnist’s argument that Anchorage was a concession to Putin because Alaska once belonged to Russia and the choice implied borders are fungible — and had offered the opposite reading, that it rubbed Putin’s nose in the loss of Russian territory, before dismissing both as looking for something to criticise. [3]
Kiriakou’s own explanation was logistical. Anchorage is roughly the halfway point: about seven or seven and a half hours’ flight for Trump, a little under ten for Putin. The alternative, he agreed, was Vladivostok. [3]
Expectations
Kiriakou expected the participants to manage expectations downward and Trump to ignore that. “They’re trying to tamp down expectations,” he said, “but you know how Trump is. Trump is going to probably throw out this gigantic grand plan to end all conflicts” — simply to see what the Russian response would be. [4]
His conclusion is a general principle he says he has held for decades: “there’s never any downside to diplomacy… It’s never a bad thing to talk to our enemies.” Pressed, he added: “Never.” He and Rall settle on Churchill’s formulation, and Kiriakou’s summary is that no giant breakthroughs should be expected, but “this is at the opening of a door.” [4]
A personal stake
Kiriakou also had an interest in one possible consequence. Asked whether sanctions relief might bring RT and Sputnik back, he said the question had been “the subject of hours and hours of text messages I have been exchanging all day” with former colleagues at those outlets — “a lot of hopeful people who were not hopeful yesterday.” [1] He judged the matter not a priority in the talks, but something without which nothing else gets done. [5]