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The island where most of Iran's oil is refined, and in John Kiriakou's assessment a standing target whose destruction would be a crisis for world oil prices. It was bombed in the 1980s, causing a global price shock; Kiriakou considers a repeat by the United States or Israel possible, and expects the Iranians to answer it rather than absorb it.
Kharg Island is, in John Kiriakou’s description, “where most of Iran’s oil is refined.” Asked in January 2026 about the theory that a strike on it would destroy the world’s oil economy, he treated the precedent as settled: it “was bombed in the 1980s. It caused a global oil price shock.”[1]
On whether it happens again he is conditional rather than predictive. It is “possible that the West, meaning the United States and/or Israel, could bomb it again.”[1]
What he will not accept is the premise that Iran would simply absorb the loss. “If that were to happen, I think the Iranians, having learned their lesson in earlier decades, would come out swinging — and it would just be a crisis for oil prices.”[2]
The assessment sits alongside his reading of the same month’s naval movements, which led him to conclude that no American strike on Iran was then possible at all.[3]
Sourced from John Kiriakou's on-record public statements. See his profile for the full body of his interviews, podcast appearances, and short-form video.
