Asked in April 2024 where the global order stood, John Kiriakou answered that the transition was already complete and would not reverse: “I think we are looking at the beginning of a permanent multipolar world. We had this period from the fall of the Soviet Union until the last few years where it really was unipolar, with the Chinese making some moves to the front of the line — but I think now we really do have a multipolar world.” His count of the poles is three.[1][2]
Not inevitable
What distinguishes his account is the claim that the outcome was chosen. “It didn”t necessarily have to be, from the American perspective, but we made some strategic errors.” He names two. The first was leaving the Iran nuclear agreement — “that was a mistake.” The second was directional: “rather than to work constructively with the Chinese, we decided to — well, President Obama decided to pivot to Asia. That was meant to challenge the Chinese.”[3]
On Russia he frames the loss as a list of forgone opportunities rather than a single decision: “there were so many areas where we could have cooperated with the Russians — it could have been counterterrorism, counter-narcotics, counter-proliferation, all different areas — and we elected instead to challenge the Russians.” He notes the asymmetry between the two rivals: Russia is “not as economically strong, of course, as the Chinese,” and lacks “the kind of population that the Chinese do that will fuel economic growth.”[3][2]