Kiriakou’s February 2025 assessment of the incoming administration’s relations with the two largest American adversaries split cleanly in two, and he was explicit that the split was not symmetrical.
Russia
He said he was optimistic that relations with Russia would improve. The basis was procedural: Trump had said that his people were in the process of coordinating a telephone call with Vladimir Putin, and that he and Putin would meet soon after he took the oath of office.[1]
His endorsement was correspondingly modest and general: that is always a good thing, he said — diplomacy is always a good thing.[1]
China
The same could not be said about China. Kiriakou said he did not think there was anybody in government who was sincere about improving relations with China — a claim about the whole apparatus rather than about any administration.[1]
From that he put the question that follows: what will make the Trump administration any different from the Biden administration?[2]
Who is instigating
His strongest claim concerns the direction of the pressure. Why, he asked, is the United States supposedly or reportedly preparing for war with China when Taiwan itself is saying that it is not on the brink of war with China — and asking why Washington keeps talking about one?[2]
His answer: it is because the United States is the party instigating the problem.[2]
The pairing is what makes the assessment distinctive. Kiriakou treats Russia policy as something a president can move, because it turns on whether the two leaders talk. He treats China policy as something a president largely inherits, because the momentum belongs to a permanent government that he says has already decided — and, on his account, has decided against the stated wishes of the country supposedly being defended.