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John Kiriakou's summary judgement on the 2026 Iran and Lebanon campaigns, delivered as the meta-headline of the whole war: air power flattened Gaza without destroying Hamas, is bogging down against Hezbollah, and cannot produce the outcome the war requires.
Air wars are overrated is the general conclusion John Kiriakou drew from the simultaneous campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, offered as “the big meta headline” of the entire period.[1]
His evidence is the gap between destruction and result. Two and a half years after October 7th, “the Israelis flattened Gaza, but they didn’t flatten Hamas. They’re still the only game in town.”[2] With Israel committed in both Lebanon and Iran, Kiriakou judged Hamas to be “in the catbird seat” — unable to be forced into a disarmament deal because its adversary was preoccupied elsewhere.[3]
In Lebanon the same pattern: “Hezbollah’s putting up a tougher fight than the Israelis had expected.” He was careful not to overstate it — “not to say that Hezbollah’s winning, they’re not. They’re getting creamed. But they’re fighting back” — with almost a million Lebanese internally displaced and nowhere to go.[3][4]
The corollary
The same reasoning gives Kiriakou his forecast for Iran. Asked what happens when the world’s oil cannot get through the Strait of Hormuz, he pictured “the mullahs down in their bunker” playing the Rolling Stones on loop: “They just have to hang tight. Because time is on their side.”[5][6]
Then the summary: “We know how to blow things up, but that doesn’t mean we know how to win.”[6] The strategic version of the argument is at the house of cards theory.
Sourced from John Kiriakou's on-record public statements. See his profile for the full body of his interviews, podcast appearances, and short-form video.
