John Kiriakou described a long conversation with a friend he characterises as “not just a Republican and a conservative, but irrationally Republican and conservative” — someone who, when challenged, “doesn’t have any idea why he believes these things” and simply repeats what the right says he is supposed to believe.[1]
The theory
The friend’s confident claim was that Elise Stefanik would win the governorship. Kiriakou’s answer was immediate: “Absolutely not. This year or any other year, she’s not going to win.”[2]
The friend then produced what Kiriakou calls a very complicated reason, resting on one issue: that New Yorkers are not allowed to carry guns, that everywhere you go there are signs saying no guns — “especially around New York City” — and that he cannot even carry his gun to the police station.[2][3]
The rebuttal
Kiriakou rejected the factual premise outright, with a comparison drawn from his own travels: “there are more signs in Kabul that say you can’t carry a gun into an establishment than there are in New York.”[3]
His explanation is that the issue is invisible rather than settled: guns are “so off the radar in New York City that nobody bothers to ban them from their businesses.”[4] Ted Rall agreed, adding that the legal position had changed in any case after the Supreme Court decision.[3]
Kiriakou then put the friend’s theory in the mouth of an imagined voter to show what it required: “People are going to say, oh, I’m pro-choice and I support the social safety net, but I’m going to vote for Stefanik because she wants me to be able to carry a gun to a gas station. I said, that’s seriously what you’re telling me.”[5][6]
His verdict on the argument was direct: “That is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard you say, and I’ve heard you say some really stupid things.”[5]
The prediction on the record
Kiriakou then made the forecast deliberately and dated it: “I’m going to say it right now, where there’s plenty of time. Elise Stefanik will not be governor of New York. Period.”[6]
Rall concurred and noted the general point does not extend to all Republicans — George Pataki won, and Kiriakou called him a good one — but held that the demographics no longer permit it.[7]
The career
Kiriakou’s wider assessment is that she was mishandled and is now finished. He said she “got screwed politically”: she was to be ambassador to the United Nations, and the nomination was withdrawn because the president thought it better for her to keep her congressional seat.[8] Needing something to do, “she ended up just saying, well, I’ll run for governor.”[9]
“She’s very talented. She was going places in the Republican Party,” Kiriakou said — “and I think her political career is done. She can’t get elected to the Senate. She won’t get elected governor. Another Republican’s going to take her House seat. I think she’s done.”[9][10] Asked why she was running a race he put at five-to-one against, he cited a rule of his own: “you should never ever pick a fight that you cannot win.”[10][11]