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John Kiriakou's account of the Tajik civil war of the 1990s as the pattern that later conflicts follow — a quarter to a third of the population dead by some accounts, ethnic massacres routine enough that captives were roped together and drowned when the bullets ran out, and a war that lasted exactly as long as its foreign sponsors stayed interested.
The Tajik civil war is the conflict John Kiriakou reaches for when he wants a precedent for a war that kills enormous numbers of people without being reported, and which he raised in October 2025 as the closest analogue to Sudan.
The scale
“A lot of people died,” he says. “By some accounts, a quarter to a third of the population.” There were “massacres, ethnic massacres all the time.”[1][2]
The detail he singles out is a logistical one. At one point “they ran out of bullets” — and so “they would tie people together with ropes and throw them into rivers and drown them all together. It was like one of their things.”[2]
Whose war it was
The similarity to Sudan that Kiriakou identifies is in the financing. These “were proxy wars that were funded by outsiders. And as long as the money kept coming in, the war went on.” The sponsors in Tajikistan’s case were an unlikely set to have in common: “the Taliban and the US and Russia and China.”[2][3]
How it stopped
It did not stop because anyone won. The sponsors “basically all lost interest in Tajikistan” and “they stopped funding it” — after which “there was a power sharing agreement, and they had a fragile peace.”[3]
Kiriakou’s coda is the part that makes the comparison to Sudan bearable rather than only bleak: “now they’ve really climbed out of the hole. It took a long time, but they were in a deep hole.”[3]
Sourced from John Kiriakou's on-record public statements. See his profile for the full body of his interviews, podcast appearances, and short-form video.
