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The effect of the Strait of Hormuz closure on oil-importing Asian economies as John Kiriakou described it — countries counting their remaining fuel in days rather than months, with no substitute supply available, and economies he expects simply to stop.
Asian fuel reserves, 2026 describes the position of oil-importing Asian economies during the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a subject John Kiriakou returned to as the least-covered consequence of the 2026 Iran war.
The figures raised on the programme were Myanmar, Vietnam and Singapore with about thirty days of fuel remaining, and Taiwan with about a hundred.[1][2] Kiriakou’s response was that the deadline was nearer than it sounded — “that’s going to come around sooner rather than later” — and that the pressure was being underestimated: “it’s hard to overestimate how harsh this is.”[2]
His analogy was domestic. “Most Americans are like one medical disaster away from bankruptcy. It’s the same thing with whole countries in this case.” For Singapore and Japan in particular, “the economies will just screech to a halt.”[2][3]
The constraint is that there is no alternative supply to buy. “There’s only so much oil available on the open market. And if it’s not coming through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for at least 30% of the world’s oil supply, then they’re out of luck.”[3]
He applied the same reasoning to the Philippines, which imports all its oil, agreeing that the war would “push people into misery” in a poor country and hit its light manufacturing; and to Japan, which imports all of its oil and has “zero oil or natural gas.”[4][5][6]
Sourced from John Kiriakou's on-record public statements. See his profile for the full body of his interviews, podcast appearances, and short-form video.
